How Have This Years Finalists Performed in First Quarters?
Let’s review how the opening quarter of the first four finals could impact the end result.
Brisbane have been the best first-quarter team in 2024, outscoring their opponents by 297 points (the biggest differential in the history of the 18-team competition since North Melbourne were +298 in first quarters in 2013).
Their first-quarter dominance is underlined by scoring 146 points more than the second-ranked team (Geelong, +151 points).
This is the biggest difference between the #1 and #2 ranked teams from the 2012 season onwards (the previous best was 2014 – Sydney +263, Geelong + 166, a 97-point difference).
Richmond, on the other hand, were the worst first-quarter team in 2024, scoring 208 fewer points than their opponents over the course of the season.
They finished just “ahead” of North Melbourne, who had a -203-point differential in first quarters.
The five points between the Tigers and the Kangaroos seems huge compared to the 1-point gap seen between Essendon (-86) and the Gold Coast (-87), the 17th and 18th ranked first quarter teams in the covid-affected 2020 season.
Let’s take a look at how the eight finalists have performed in first quarters this year, and how recent matchups have played out.
Port Adelaide v Geelong
You could argue that the second qualifying final between Port Adelaide and Geelong is the most even matchup of the four finals games with respect to first quarter performance, with the Cats (+151) ranked second and the Power (+127) ranked third.
Interestingly, Geelong are the #1 ranked team for first quarters in away games (+95), while Port Adelaide are the eighth-ranked team for first quarters at home (+45). Geelong also play well in interstate games, ranked third overall (+71).
The Power jumped out of the blocks when they played the Cats at GMHBA Stadium in round 9, kicking eight goals to three to lead by 29 points at quarter time.
The visitors extended their lead by two goals to be 41 points ahead at the main break, before Geelong kicked nine goals to three in the second half to bring the margin back to six points at the final siren.
The round 9 clash was Port Adelaide’s first in Geelong in 17 years.
And although the Power crashed out of the 2023 finals series in straight sets, they have beaten the Cats twice in qualifying finals in recent years (2020 and 2021).
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
The Bulldogs and the Hawks are two of the in-form teams of the competition leading into finals, both having won six of their last seven games.
Across the course of the season the Bulldogs are the #5 ranked team for first quarters (+78), while Hawthorn are ranked seventh (+30).
The Hawks got a late-season boost in their overall ranking thanks to their 63-point win over Richmond, where they were up by 50 points at quarter time.
When the two teams faced off in round 8 the Bulldogs kicked the three goals in the first six minutes to jump out to their biggest lead of the match, although the Hawks kicked four of the next six goals to get within five points at quarter time.
Hawthorn continued their scoring run in the second quarter, kicking three goals to one to take an eight-point lead heading into the main break.
A back-and-forth second half saw the Bulldogs take the lead midway through the final quarter, but the Hawks held on to win by seven points.
Sydney v GWS
Sydney’s first quarter struggles have been well publicised this year, but they were particularly prominent in the final third of the season.
The Swans were ranked in the bottom three for their first quarter performance this season, scoring 135 fewer points than their opponents over the course of the year.
Their poor performance in first quarters has been particularly troubling in home games, where the Swans are ranked last (-81).
Sydney were down by 15 points at quarter time in the first “Battle of the Bridge” game this year, played at the SCG in round 8.
However, it was all red and white after quarter time, with the Swans kicking 12 goals to five to win by 29 points.
The Bloods faired better in the opening quarter of the second game against the Giants in Round 15, going into the first break while ahead by three points.
It will be interesting to see how the qualifying final pans out, given the Giants hold a 3-0 lead over the Swans in finals matches.
Brisbane v Carlton
As I mentioned at the top, Brisbane have been the best first quarter team this season by a significant margin.
Brisbane’s dominance in the early part of games has mostly come from their performances playing at home.
The Lions are also the best first quarter team when home games are considered, sitting on a +229-point differential.
That’s nearly 150 points better than the next best performing team, Collingwood (+83 points).
Carlton have well and truly held their own in opening quarters this season, ranking fourth overall (+125) as well as fourth in away games (+51).
However, their performance has been boosted by the “away” games they play in Melbourne, as the Blues are the ranked seventh for first quarter performance in interstate games (+11).
In last season’s preliminary final Carlton jumped out of the blocks with a five goal to one opening quarter to lead by 23 points at the first break.
But the Lions wrestled control back after quarter time, kicking 10 goals to three for the remainder of the match and winning by 16 points.
Roles were reversed when the two teams faced off again in Opening Round earlier this year.
Brisbane kicked seven goals to two in the first quarter to get out to a 32-point lead at quarter time. The Lions and Blues kicked two goals each in the second, with the home team leading by 31 at the main break.
Three goals to Charlie Curnow in the first eight minutes after half time kickstarted Carlton’s second-half fightback, with the Blues going on win by a point courtesy of a clutch Harry McKay goal in the 29th minute of the last quarter.
The timeframe of this stat is limited based on what data are freely/easily available and/or accessible. Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you spot any errors in what I have presented. As always, apologies to anyone who has already looked at this stat!