Smallest Biggest Loss by an Eventual Premier

On Episode 2 of the Useless AFL Stats podcast, special guest Chris Coleman (sports broadcaster and host of the Super Serious Sports Show and the boys were talking about the biggest loss by a team that went on to win the flag. This record is held by Carlton, who won the flag in 1945 after losing by 100 points to Essendon in Round 3.

Following on from this discussion, Chris asked stats guru Liam Crowhurst what the smallest largest loss an eventual premier had in a season. Like last week, I thought I would have a go at finding the answer.

As far as I can tell, the smallest largest loss by an eventual premier is 5 points. This happened in Round 4, 1918, when South Melbourne lost to St Kilda. This was their only loss for the season.

So, I sent in my findings once again, and I got a pleasant surprise when I sat and listened to Episode 3, where Liam reverted to his high school days and copied his answer from one of his friends who had done the homework – me! I’m a little touched that I’m a friend in this scenario. The homework section of the podcast starts at the 10 minute mark, for anyone interested.

But my mind was blown even further by the special guest on Episode 3 – podcaster, AFL history buff, and Essendon supporter Tim from the Kick to Kick podcast – who shared this interesting tidbit about that 1918 game:

“South Melbourne had a very good team, and they were invited up to the Dandenong Ranges by one of their sponsors and had quite a big night the night before [the game]. They were late to the game and rocked up a little bit tipsy and hungover, and that’s how St Kilda were able to beat them in that one game.”

“The next year when they played St Kilda for the first time, they were really angry about it. And I think you’ll see the highest quarter score ever is that game where I think they kicked 19 goals in the last quarter – they absolutely demolished St Kilda as a bit of revenge for the year before when they ruined their perfect record.”

I looked into this claim, and Tim was pretty close. While South Melbourne did get their revenge against St Kilda in their first meeting of 1919 (Round 3), they only won by 36 points. However, when the two teams played later that year in Round 12, South Melbourne won by 171 points after kicking 17.4 to 0.0 in the final quarter.

Some other fun stats from my research:

The second smallest largest loss by an eventual premier is also by a team that only lost one game of the season, when the Bulldogs defeated Essendon by 11 points in Round 21, 2000.

The smallest largest loss by an eventual premier who lost more than one game in a season is 12 points, which has happened on three occasions: most recently in 1932 when Richmond won the flag after losing to Carlton by 1 point in Round 3, drawing with Geelong in Round 6, losing to South Melbourne by 2 points in Round 8, and losing to Collingwood by 12 points in Round 10. This also happened in 1911 and 1927.

Thanks again to the UAS team for the question and for letting me crash Liam’s homework segment. Keep up the great work!